Electric vehicles made up more than 5% of new vehicle sales in the United States last year, and experts say rapid growth in transportation electrification is likely to continue. Federal funds will help to develop a national charging network and incentivize consumers to purchase from dozens of new models that automakers are bringing to market.

EVs as a percent of new vehicle sales have risen from around 2% in 2020 to more than 6% in the third quarter of 2022.

“There's an incredible amount of opportunity and momentum,” Electrification Coalition Executive Director Ben Prochazka said. The group advocates for policies to speed the adoption of plug-in vehicles, and sees the bipartisan infrastructure law of 2021 and last year’s Inflation Reduction Act as key accelerators in the industry.

Among other investments, the infrastructure law provided $7.5 billion for a national network of 500,000 electric vehicle chargers while the IRA extended federal tax credits for vehicle purchases.

It appears EVs “are on the verge of a tipping point,” Prochazka said. “But I do think we have challenges,” including working out the details of how federal incentives will be structured.

“The transition takes time,” said Joe Britton, founder and former executive director of the Zero Emission Transportation Association. The group’s members include utilities and charging companies, Tesla, Lucid, Sunrun and other technology companies.

EV sales in the U.S. could reach 10% this year, he said, though Britton doesn’t expect sales to continue growing at such a rapid pace.

President Joe Biden wants half of all new passenger vehicle sales in the U.S. to be electric vehicles by 2030 . Experts say the goal is aggressive and will hinge on the easing of constrained supply chains and how federal incentives are implemented.

Stephen Engblom, senior managing director of commercial real estate firm CBRE, says he is “optimistic” the president’s goal can be achieved if challenges in locating charging stations are met and the grid can support the new demand. “You have to have the energy and you have to have the real estate,” he said.

Building out the EV charging network “is actually a real estate challenge,” Engblom said, requiring automotive and charging companies, utilities and commercial real estate owners, to work together. “I think, inherently, real estate will be the biggest challenge, and I would say that that's where I would watch over the next year as these partnerships work themselves out.”

In New York City, electric utility Consolidated Edison has seen “tremendous growth, just in the last several months,” said Director of E-mobility & Demonstrations Raghusimha Sudhakara .

The transition to electric vehicles is “something we think about every day,” Sudhakara said. “So far it’s been very smooth,” with ConEd able to meet every new service request for electric chargers. But the utility is also looking to proactively build out areas of its grid where there are large fleets that may want to electrify.

The Edison Electric Institute, which represents investor-owned utilities, expects there will be 26.4 million EVs on U.S. roads in 2030, with annual sales of nearly 5.6 million vehicles in 2030, or about 32% of the light-duty total.

“In the last year we doubled sales, from 3% to 6%,” Britton said. “Obviously I don't know that we can keep doubling every year, but we're going to see a ton of growth. ... I think [in 2023] we’ll probably sell 1.5 million units.”

Industry observers say keys to accelerating EV adoption in the next year include the details of vehicle tax credit implementation, the rollout of $5 billion in funds for the president’s National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure formula program, and addressing potential utility bottlenecks in electrifying charging stations.

Vehicle credit rules

The Inflation Reduction Act contained $369 billion for clean energy investments , including reviving tax credits for EVs. But the new tax credit is not simple: It is split into portions , and qualifying depends on where the vehicle was assembled and what percentage of critical minerals used were extracted or processed in the U.S.

“I think the changes to the tax credit right now are probably challenging for the average consumer to figure out and understand what vehicles are eligible,” Prochazka said. “W ith any new policy like this, that has nuance that consumers have to try and sift through, it’s going to take a little bit of time.”

Some of that uncertainty surrounds which vehicles qualify for credits, which depends on mineral content and whether it meets domestic assembly requirements.

The U.S. Department of the Treasury and Internal Revenue Service issued some clarifying information in December for new vehicle purchases, and Prochazka said proposed guidance on the new sourcing provisions for the clean vehicles credit is expected in March, along with a notice of proposed rulemaking.

The implementation details will be “a challenge for everybody,” Britton said. “We're all going to be struggling, in the short term, to figure out who's eligible, are they attainable standards and what benchmarks do we use. There's a ton of implementation that we're going to be working on.”

Charging network funds roll out

Another major factor this year will be the disbursement of billions of dollars to states for the development of a national charging network.

To access the first $5 billion, states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico were required to file charging plans and the Federal Highway Administration announced in September that all have been approved.

The first tranche of funding has been rolled out to states, Prochazka said, setting the stage for developers to propose charging solutions. States are already in the process of creating the requests for proposals to develop new stations “so that they can get the companies ready and contracted to be able to build out the infrastructure network,” he said.

“I think that's going to be also really important for consumers, to start to see that infrastructure developing and the stories associated with that infrastructure developing,” Prochazka said. ”But it's not going to happen overnight. It's going to take a lot of effort.”

“How quickly the states move, I think some of that will be determined by their sophistication and experience doing this. But with this bipartisan infrastructure bill money, we’re probably building charging going gangbusters for the next three to five years,” said Britton.

Issues in utility connections

Beyond vehicle sales and charger development, is the utility interconnection — and here delays are already being witnessed.

“With network upgrade queues backing up into the 2030s,” utilities may look to solar and energy storage options to serve charging stations in some areas, Jeffrey Douglass, markets and research manager at Invinity Energy Systems, said in an email. The company is a developer of utility-scale storage.

Managing the power loads associated with transportation electrification will help in “ maintaining grid stability and accelerating the world’s transition to net zero,” he said.

Electricity demand from electric vehicle adoption is unlikely to lead to generation or capacity constraints, said Britton, though substation upgrades may be required in some areas.

“Some of the biggest limitations in the market will be limits on the utility grids,” said CBRE’s Engblom. “Upgrading the grid to be able to handle all of this new high-speed charging is going to be a big challenge.”

It takes charging company EVgo about 4-8 weeks to construct a new charging station, CEO Cathy Zoi said during the company’s third quarter earnings call in November. But the end-to-end time, from station conception to energizing stalls, now takes about 18 months, she said. That time had been about 12 months, but delays on the utility side are stretching development times.

There is a “utility work backlog associated with transformer shortages,” Zoi said. “When we're building the configurations that we're building now, which are ultrafast 350-kW chargers with more stalls, that almost always requires a transformer upgrade.”

The utility sector warned federal lawmakers last year that a shortage of distribution system transformers is depleting replacement equipment stockpiles and delaying or canceling some electrification projects.

“Persistent utility labor shortages and transformer supply chain constraints exacerbate utility work backlogs at the front and back end of the charger development process,” Zoi said. “We expect utility-related delays will continue to be an issue as power companies gear up for transportation electrification and work to make power systems resilient to the effects of climate change.”

There were about 2,300 level 2 chargers and 140 DC Fast Chargers installed in Consolidated Edison’s territory at the end of last year, said Sudhakara. The utility expects its Power Ready make-ready program to help bolster those numbers quickly, reaching 18,500 level 2 chargers and more than 450 DCFC by 2025. To meet the state’s EV adoption goals, the utility expects 400,000 chargers in its territory by 2035.

“With the current growth we are experiencing, we’re providing service relatively smoothly,” he said. “But it would be helpful to work out a construct where we reinforce the grid, build out areas where there are high levels of fleets.”

ConEd’s queue of chargers requesting service already includes more than 1,000 DCFCs, said Sudhakara.

“The timing for utilities to meet the demand is challenging,” Prochazka said, in particular for utilities that may not have preauthorizations from regulators for necessary system buildouts. Those types of approvals, along with streamlined permitting processes, can help utilities to “clear the deck a little faster,” he said.

As sales of electric vehicles continue to grow, inoperable and poorly maintained public charging stations increasingly frustrate drivers, according to an ongoing study by J.D. Power , the consumer data analysis firm known for its automobile quality and dependability studies. Charge point unreliability has increased 50% from 2021 to January 2023, according to data provided by Brent Gruber, executive director of J.D Power’s electric vehicle practice, from 14% to 21%.

“This steady climb upwards shows that it's not getting better,” Gruber said in an interview. The latest data show that more than one in five charging attempts fail, with survey participants attributing 72% of the failures to malfunctioning or out-of-service chargers. “That's affecting the satisfaction with the public charging experience,” he said.

Gruber explained that there are “a lot of older charging stations that are falling into a state of disrepair,” and that in particular, smaller owner/operator installations at retail locations may not be well maintained.

EV owners in states with higher numbers of electric vehicles are less satisfied with public charging stations than owners in the rest of the country. Also less satisfied, Gruber said, are owners in large cities with high-density housing, who are more likely to rely more on public charging. There’s an “even greater disconnect between the demand and the availability of chargers” in those areas, Gruber said.

As of 2022, when EV sales soared 65% , there were 53,764 public charging stations in the U.S., according to data from the Alternative Fuels Data Center . “In the United States, the rate of EV adoption is growing at a rate that is almost double that of charger installation growth rates,” Gruber said. “The construction of new charging stations is not keeping up with the demand.”

With the billions of dollars flowing into charging infrastructure from the 2021 infrastructure law, “there are a lot of companies that are jumping into the fray,” said Gruber. “What we're seeing in the public charging space is a bit of the Wild West right now.”

That’s triggered a frenzy of mergers and acquisitions , with at least seven deals in the U.S. and 25 globally last year. On Feb. 16, BP Products North America announced the acquisition of TravelCenters of America, a nationwide network of truck and car stops , restaurants and fuel outlets, which BP said will enable its growth in EV charging and alternative fuels to help customers decarbonize their fleets.

BP is also partnering with Hertz to establish a national network of EV charging stations. According to a Feb. 15 press release, the companies will build large-scale fast-charging hubs in Atlanta; Austin, Texas; Boston; Chicago; Denver; Houston; Miami; New York City; Orlando, Florida; Phoenix; San Francisco; and Washington, D.C. “Electrification won’t happen unless the infrastructure is there,” said Vic Shao, president of bp pulse fleet, in an interview.

Shao said bp provides a guaranteed service level to its customers. “We take very seriously the reliability and quality aspect of our network, but that requires a significant amount of behind-the-scenes work to make that happen,” he explained.

J.D. Power expects the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Formula Program funding “will lead to sizable growth in the availability of EV charging stations, but just adding stations isn’t the answer,” it notes in its press release. They need to be in the right locations, designed with things for users to do while they’re charging, and “we need to make sure those stations are reliable.”

The J.D. Power survey respondents ranked Tesla Destination and Tesla Supercharger highest in satisfaction among Level 2 and DC fast chargers, respectively. Tesla owners “enjoy a completely different charger experience,” said Jake Fisher, senior director of auto testing at Consumer Reports, in an interview. Tesla developed its own charging network, providing what Fisher called a “seamless experience.”

On Feb. 15, the White House announced that Tesla would open some of its charging network to non-Tesla vehicles. It’s pledging to make at least 7,500 chargers available by the end of 2024, but Gruber has doubts about “how open that network” will be. Already, some Tesla owners are worried about increased competition for chargers, leading to congestion and longer wait times.

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By Franklin Energy

Deep into the pandemic, when—like many of you, I’m sure—it felt like all the TV and movies had been watched, I stumbled upon the Long Way series with Ewan McGregor and Charley Boorman. If you’re not familiar, they’re both actors and friends who love motorcycles and they invite viewers to join them as they “travel the globe on two wheels.”

I loved the escapism the series provides, especially at a time when travel was no longer a possibility, and how they showed the realities of international travel in remote areas. The most recent installment, Long Way Up, chronicles their “warts and all” experience driving electric Harley-Davidson LiveWire prototypes, supported by electric Rivian pickup truck prototypes, from Argentina to Los Angeles. We were knee deep in the development of our EV Solution at the time I was watching, and I convinced myself that an episode each night was another element of the user research we’d been conducting throughout the day.

A passion for EVs is being stirred throughout pop culture right now, be it from a zany wannabe spaceman billionaire, the president, or a couple actors travelling around the world the hard way. In large part because of this surge in popularity, BloombergNEF forecasts more than half of US car sales will be electric by 2030.  To support that, McKinsey and others estimate we’ll need approximately 20 times more EV chargers than we have now by then. But when those same people begin thinking about the logistics of owning an EV, the reality of navigating how and where to charge it quickly becomes overwhelming.

Charging is a concern felt by all types of consumers. Whether it’s city folks living in multi-unit dwellings (MUD) with no dedicated parking, renters not wanting to invest in their temporary home or office, country folks facing long drives to do pretty much everything, middle-class people without $85K to spend on a new car, those with older homes fearing the cost of upgrading their wiring, my mountain-living-stuck-in-her-ways mom, and yes, people who like road trips to remote places. All of them see hurdles to EV adoption that simply don’t exist when they’re considering a traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle.

The questions and concerns consumers experience when considering an EV purchase make EV education, expert support, and simple participation pathways vital to the success of utility make-ready and charger incentive programs. Consumers are interested in EVs but, as an industry, we need to help make participation easy and affordable, while ensuring all consumers, even those living in historically marginalized communities, can benefit from the financial and environmental benefits EV’s offer.

Increase Adoption with Education and Support

Education is critical to helping consumers plan for the purchase of an EV and related charging equipment, which makes this a key element of any successful program design. Research shows that today, consumers spend more than seven hours on average researching vehicles before making a purchase. By providing vehicle comparison tools (including battery range details), find a dealer tools for those that sell EVs, maps of public charger locations, and information about why and how to install faster chargers for home use, utilities can support this important purchase decision to build trust, shorten the decision-making process, and increase the number of EVs sold. At present, according to SECC estimates, only four percent of consumers go to their electricity provider to get information about EVs, but those that do tend to trust the information they receive, more so than information from manufacturers, government sources or dealers. By providing education and support, utilities can improve customer satisfaction while growing their electricity load.

Customer Experience Should Be Prioritized

The customer experience should be simple; designed to effortlessly guide and support the consumer as they advance in their EV and EV charging journey. It should help consumers understand EVs and EV chargers, while providing a transparent view of total estimated project costs, information on all available rebates, incentives and financing offers, and expectations regarding project timelines. Consumers shouldn’t have to make a lot of phone calls to various trades, coordinate multiple site visits, and oversee a project plan to keep track of all the moving pieces. From the customer’s perspective, it should be as simple as providing basic information, scheduling an appointment, having a professional reach out in a convenient manner to answer any clarifying questions, and having the work completed in a reasonable time frame. Whether we’re talking residential or commercial customers, we need to design solutions that help realize this vision if we expect participation rates in our programs to increase substantially.

Underserved Communities and MUD are Critical

Most approved EV programs have some focus or prioritization on underserved communities and approximately one-third have specific investments for MUDs. In addition, of the 36 states on ACEEE’s Scorecard, six have a law or commission order directing utilities to incorporate equity into their transportation electrification or EV charging investment plans. In general, incentives are scaled to provide higher value rebates to these communities.

This investment requires an ability to identify, and therefore target, eligible customers in these markets. For example, a custom propensity model—based on past participation data and other indicators such as state, regional or local mandates for EV charging; indicators of where EV drivers are already parking; the location of relevant local corporations where consumers tend to park with an emphasis on those with sustainability and/or GHG reduction commitments (e.g., Dollar Tree, Walmart); and the location of low-to-moderate income households, communities of color, and communities with high pollution burdens—can help identify eligible properties with a high likelihood of conversion. This investment also requires a solution design that supports non-dedicated parking spots for “at home” charging in MUDs, without solely relying on DC fast chargers that charge rapidly, but typically do so at a higher commercial rate. For example, designing a solution that includes dedicated EV parking spots, including handicap accessible spots, with L2 chargers that include clear signage regarding use and time limits, plus card readers for payment, can help. The design should also be conducive to multiple modes of transportation, including mass transit, ride-hailing, and yes, even electric motorcycles, bikes, and scooters. Larger charging incentives for municipal fleet vehicles and ride-sharing drivers in targeted communities can help increase the rate of conversion to EVs in these areas, as can incentives to encourage centralized electric scooter and electric bike rental hubs. Community engagement is critical at the local level to ensure EV chargers are sited where they provide the most benefit to these communities.

Conclusion

According to SEPA research, EVs represent the most significant new electric load since the rise of air conditioning in the 1950s, and according to ACEEE, transportation electrification is widely recognized as one of the best strategies for significantly reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Win-win if we can prioritize the customer experience in solution development, and a triple win if we can cross-promote long-standing energy efficiency, demand response and solar programs, especially to underserved communities, in the process.

But we still have a long way to go.

When the Long Way Up series ended, I wanted a Harley-Davidson Livewire. Never mind that I’m not even a motorcycle person, but instead, a suburban football mom with three dogs who has absolutely no use for one.  What’s interesting is that I was mentally able to gloss over all that drama around range anxiety that I witnessed first-hand while watching, and the impact of weather on trip timing. I still walked away wanting a LiveWire and a Rivian. It’ll be challenging, but if the utility industry can hold onto that excitement around EVs, educate customers in a meaningful way, make delivery of transportation electrification solutions easy for them, and do so in an equitable way, we can change our world.

A tall order for sure, but with a little forethought the jump doesn’t need to be a long way up.

The Biden administration on Feb. 15 finalized standards for a $7.5 billion national electric vehicle charging network and highlighted other progress in the bid to transition the country away from internal combustion vehicles.

“The new standards will ensure everyone can use the network – no matter what car you drive or which state you charge in,” the White House said in a statement .

As part of the announcement, the White House said Tesla has agreed to open to the public at least 7,500 chargers on its proprietary network. Previously, the EV manufacturer’s network had been closed to other brands.

“The open chargers will be distributed across the United States. They will include at least 3,500 new and existing 250 kW Superchargers along highway corridors to expand freedom of travel for all EVs, and Level 2 Destination Charging at locations like hotels and restaurants in urban and rural locations,” the White House said in a statement. “All EV drivers will be able to access these stations using the Tesla app or website.”

Tesla also plans to double its full nationwide network of Superchargers, according to the announcement.

Biden’s EV aspirations include having 50% of new car sales be electric by 2030 and the rollout of a 500,000-public-charger network. According to the White House, there are more than 3 million EVs registered in the U.S. today, and more than 130,000 public chargers.

The new rules lay out requirements for chargers funded by the federal government, including that they be built in the United States.

“Effective immediately, final assembly and all manufacturing processes for any iron or steel charger enclosures or housing occur in the United States. By July 2024, at least 55 percent of the cost of all components will need to be manufactured domestically as well,” the White House said.

Along with Tesla, the White House highlighted announcements and work being done by a range of companies in the EV charging space, including General Motors, EVgo, Pilot, Hertz and bp.

These companies and others are “announcing new commitments to expand their networks by thousands of public charging ports in the next two years, using private funds to complement federal dollars and putting the nation’s EV charging goals even closer within reach,” the White House said.

The ongoing expansion of the U.S. electric vehicle ecosystem is creating new cybersecurity risks for the nation's power system by offering hackers access through widely distributed and less well-protected charging stations, but solutions are emerging, charger software providers and researchers said.

Recent hacks using Russian charging stations to ridicule Vladimir Putin and British chargers to play adults-only content show cyber threats are real, public and private sector analysts said . Accessing customer personal or financial data has been demonstrated, and an EV boom driven by proliferating transportation electrification policy goals could spread threats across the power system, they added.

With a Biden Administration goal of 50% of new car sales to be zero emissions by 2035 and funding for a national EV charging network, U.S. transportation electrification“is accelerating at a breakneck speed,” said Joseph Vellone, North America head for international charger software provider ev.energy . Innovative utility-managed charging programs could allow “an attacker with malicious intent to destabilize the power system,” he said.

“Permissive access to chargers was adequate for traditional power systems,” but “vehicle-grid integration” to manage charging “adds orders of magnitude of operational complexity,” added Duncan Greatwood, CEO of cybersecurity specialist Xage . Vulnerability is significant because “cybersecurity strategies were only introduced into the energy sector in the last 18 months,” he said.

EVs, now about 1% of the 250 million U.S. light-duty vehicles , rose to 6.1% of new U.S. vehicle sales in Q3 2022 from 3.7% in Q3 2021, Clean Technica reported September 13 . By 2030, they could be 52% of new car sales, according to a BloombergNEF estimate reported September 20 . And vulnerabilities will increase with that rapid EV ecosystem expansion across the power system’s attack surface, cybersecurity specialists agreed.

Those vulnerabilities threaten more serious impacts than ridiculing Putin or randomly showing adult content, power industry, private cybersecurity providers, and cybersecurity research leaders said . An October 25 Office of the National Cyber Director-led forum recognized that new answers for EV ecosystem cybersecurity are needed. But stopping Black Hat attackers with financial or worse motives who seem always a step ahead will be challenging, those leaders acknowledged.

Detailing the threats

The U.S.’s over 122,000 total public charging ports and its 455,000 new EV sales in 2022 led the individual country rankings in the BloombergNEF EV Dashboard released September 21 . And “people are plugging in and charging without attacks,” said Sunil Chhaya, a senior technical executive for transportation at the Electric Power Research Institute.

But “hackers are everywhere,” and the growth and visibility of the EV ecosystem will magnify the temptation to either make money or a political point,” Chhaya said. “The consequences of threats not addressed are real” because “charging infrastructure is a good entry point” for financial, EV ecosystem, or power system attacks, he added.

The EV ecosystem is part of a growing “internet of energy” market that will support the energy transition but comes with the “side effect” of an increased attack surface, agreed Schneider Electric VP for Product Cybersecurity and Chief Product Security Officer Megan Samford.

Most recent attacks focused on vulnerabilities between utility-owned power system assets and chargers to obtain customer personal and financial data or disrupt charging, Samford said.

Few specifics on attacks are made public, but in addition to the Russia and U.K. events, a white hat attack on German Tesla charging stations was reported by Bloomberg News January 11 . In addition, international researchers identified 13 vulnerabilities in 16 charging systems, TechRepublic reported March 23 . Finally, out of more than 240 attacks on charger stations globally in 2021, 40.1% used charger access to get at charger company servers, according to Israeli EV cybersecurity specialists Upstream’s 2022 report .

Without early detection, attacks such as these could lead to “cascading” power system outages, Samford said.

Too often, cybersecurity is “an afterthought” in connecting public charging to the power system, according to a 2019 EPRI comprehensive cybersecurity plan . But planning should include principles of data confidentiality, including protections to access and acknowledgment of risks to safety, privacy, reliability, and finance.

Charging stations provide increasingly complex interactions about when and how quickly vehicles are charged and discharged, said Xage’s Greatwood. “The easiest hack is not vertically into the well-protected power system core but horizontally to spread malware across less well-protected EV charging stations and station management systems,” he added.

“The energy transition is making grid edge assets more important,” he said. “A successfully widespread attack could stop traffic” or “create a local outage that leads to a cascading power system disruption,” he agreed.

Distribution system infrastructure like substations are difficult to attack and system voltage and frequency are carefully monitored, said Rolf Bienert, managing and technical director of leading power system standards advocate OpenADR Alliance . But as smart chargers and real-time pricing are used to address demand spikes, attackers might disrupt communications to create reliability failures, he said.

The charging system’s ready public access through remote physical connections, its limited designed-in security, and its expansive attack surface makes it “by far the most vulnerable element” in the EV ecosystem, Roy Fridman, CEO of Israeli cybersecurity specialist C2A Security, summarized in a July 4 blog .

Software “is the connective tissue between utilities and system operators” allowing management of EV charging “to balance loads,” said ev.energy’s Vellone. But EV charger software “could carry a Trojan horse planted by a rogue agent or nation like Russia or China,” he agreed.

In a state with a heavy charging load like California, the attacker “could orchestrate a sudden huge power surge during a peak demand period that could easily be catastrophic,” Vellone said. Cascading circuit outages “could result in something like the August 2003 two-day blackout across the Northeast caused by a fallen tree branch,” he suggested.

U.S. cybersecurity standards like federally-ordered Zero Trust and Defense in Depth strategies are inadequate for fully protecting financial and personal data or regulating charger firmware and software, Vellone and others said.

“The gold standard is the 2018 European Union General Data Protection Regulation ’s strict, comprehensive, and forward-looking guidelines,“ and U.S. federal legislation could use the 2018 California Consumer Privacy Act as a template, Vellone said.

Cybersecurity efforts like the General Services Administration’s May 2021 Executive Order 14208 and President Biden’s October 11 Executive Order offer no guidance for the EV ecosystem, stakeholders agreed. And payment card industry security standards for gasoline pumps omit critical EV charger vulnerabilities that should be addressed by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation , they added.

Utilities were quick to answer Utility Dive queries about their cybersecurity efforts but, for good reason, reluctant to detail incidents or the growing threat potential.

The utility dilemma

A conundrum limits utility and system operator public comments on cybersecurity. They want customers and shareholders to know they are aware of and working on solutions to threats, but they cannot detail experiences and preparations because it could reveal their enormous attack surfaces’ vulnerabilities, they unanimously agreed.

“We would rather not provide details on particular threats,” said Consolidated Edison spokesperson Allan Drury. But ConEd’s experts and government and industry partners are helping develop “a robust defense-in-depth program to mitigate the threats,” he added.

Federal cybersecurity guidance describes a defense-in-depth strategy for charging stations as multiple layers of automated authentication and operations monitoring from the utility to the charger, C2A’s Fridman and other security providers said.

DTE Energy vehicle-grid integration programs include open access software platforms , but “we coordinate extensively with our industry partners on cybersecurity,” was all DTE Energy Spokesperson Angela Meriedeth could disclose.

“For obvious reasons, San Diego Gas and Electric does not discuss specifics of our security efforts,” Krista Van Tassel, the utility’s spokesperson, echoed. But “critical systems” are “rigorously” tested for vulnerabilities, security practices and tools are “continually” reviewed, and the utility is working with industry partners on “risk mitigation strategies,” she added.

Southern California Edison is similarly working with industry stakeholders to develop cybersecurity “standards and protocols” to “reduce cybersecurity risk to the grid as EVs continue to grow,” the utility’s spokesperson Brian Leventhal said.

Washington state’s Avista Utilities does not now face a significant cyber threat because chargers and utility control systems are not interconnected, Rendall Farley, its manager of electric transportation, said. But future programs and a “next generation of high-powered chargers” may interconnect utility systems through managed charging to address demand peaks, which would require “mitigating any cyber threats,” he said.

Strategies to mitigate such vertical attacks on utility control systems from public chargers and to securely update cybersecurity software and firmware are being developed, researchers and private sector experts agreed.

Emerging strategies and tools

Many utilities are planning to manage EV charging loads, which will increase vulnerabilities to cyberattacks, most stakeholders agreed. But funding and research are already addressing the challenge, many said.

“The five-year $5 billion funding of a national interstate charging corridor in the Infrastructure Law “is a once in a generation opportunity,” said Idaho National Laboratory Senior Research Engineer Tim Pennington. It can lead to “important new cybersecurity standards” from federal agencies, he added.

Charger hardware can have “independent certifications” for meeting cybersecurity standards, be programmed with “self-aware, built-in, security capabilities,” and be given routine “system checks,” Schneider Electric’s Samford said. But capabilities are still needed to “detect anomalous behavior across the network and system,” to identify “potentially malicious behavior,” and to “take action,” she added.

INL is developing those capabilities within the Department of Energy’s Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response , or CESER, programs, Pennington said. And its laboratory demonstrations have shown the new strategies and technologies can work, he added.

There is “no official specific intelligence about an adversary or a threat,” INL Energy Threats Program Manager Jamie Richards, working under the CESER programs, specified. But laboratory demonstrations with high-powered chargers showed a new tool can detect and mitigate attacks, she added.

One INL demonstration showed charger vulnerabilities like a piece of readable code, a default password, or an accessible public charger port make serious impacts possible, Richards said. In a second demonstration, INL’s safety instrumented system , or SIS, cybersecurity tool, “recognized adversary behaviors targeting those charger vulnerabilities with a 75% success rate,” she added.

INL is now testing automated SIS interventions like interrupting charging to prevent escalating impacts, Richards said. The SIS tool’s cost-effectiveness “is hard to know at this stage” because “the return on investment for any security solution is not typically justified until the cost of what it can prevent becomes clear,” she added.

A coming but not yet announced EPRI online tool will allow EV ecosystem participants “to assess their cybersecurity strengths and weaknesses and obtain mitigations based on related industries’ best practices,” EPRI’s Chhaya said.

But best practices from other industries may not provide the cybersecurity needed for the EV ecosystem, Xage’s Greatwood said. “Banks can use manufacturer-installed security certificates in laptops and cellphones, but that level of authentication is not built into today’s EV charging systems,” he said.

A Mesh Architecture defense strategy could provide a higher level of cybersecurity by storing user identity authentication information in multiple, programmed internet “nodes,” he said. “If two nodes of a 20-node Mesh are hacked, the other nodes will recognize the intrusion and deny further access to the hacker to maintain a distributed system’s integrity,” Greatwood added.

“In traditional operational security, the system is as weak as its weakest link and one hack creates access to the entire system, he said. With a Mesh architecture , hacked nodes are “quickly identified and reset,” which means “more nodes in the Mesh makes the system’s security better,” he added. “No protection can be guaranteed, but the Mesh approach makes attacks more difficult and impacts more limited,” he said.

“It is always a cat and mouse game,” EPRI’s Chhaya agreed. “The objective is to combine practices that generally perform securely except for isolated incidents and use them to minimize malicious intrusions and their impacts” because none of the participants in the EV ecosystem “want to end up causing an issue and being in a headline,” he said.

Vellone, whose priority is achieving the 2030 clean transportation mandates, agreed. “Cybersecurity for hardware and software needs to come together at the same time to make this happen and perfect cannot be the enemy of good,” he said. “The commitment must be to continuous proactive improvement and securely updating everything over and over,” he added.

For cities to enable widespread electric vehicle adoption, they must make charging accessible to people living in multifamily housing or condos. However, those residents typically lack a garage or carport where they can charge vehicles overnight.

There are numerous ways to address those issues, according to panelists at the Smart Cities Connect Fall Conference and Expo near Washington, D.C., last week. They include installing chargers along the curbside, at multifamily buildings, or in parking lots of common destinations such as grocery stores, libraries or parks.

But there is debate as to whether the EV buyers market should dictate the EV rollout or if the government should provide incentives to ensure chargers are built in the areas that need them, said panel moderator Antoine Thompson, who serves as executive director of the Greater Washington Region Clean Cities Coalition.

Panelists said there are opportunities for city leaders to partner with private companies to reach those communities.

It’s a “ chicken and the egg” situation, said Brandon Jacobs, regional vice president of sales at the EV charger company, Blink Charging. “In many scenarios, people don’t want to put chargers in until there’s EVs and people don’t want EVs until there are chargers in the ground,” Jacobs said.

It’s not enough to just install chargers at multifamily homes, he said. To install curbside charging, EV charging companies like Blink need to work with cities and utilities to understand where the power’s coming from and determine where they can “pull more in.”

It’s also not possible for companies to install chargers along the public right of way without working with the local government, and they can’t service different neighborhoods without working with local neighborhoods or councils, said Belkys Cordero, director of marketing at BlueLA , an EV car sharing service supported by Blink Mobility.

When it’s looking to install a charging station, BlueLA works with different city departments — such as the department of transportation, local stakeholders and other constituents affected by the stations, she said.

“Do they really need it? Is it taking away their parking when we do this? What’s the balance?” Cordero asked. “I don’t think ... one party is responsible; I think we all come together to make it accessible to everybody.”

In San Antonio, Texas, many city residents cannot charge their cars in a garage overnight, said Julia Murphy, the city’s deputy chief sustainability officer.

The city evaluated its growing need for more chargers to keep up with the forecasted increase in EVs locally. It also considered commitments laid out in its climate and clean air plans . It then entered into a public-private partnership in which chargers were installed at some city-owned sites such as libraries, parks and parking garages, said Murphy.

The project aimed to get people more comfortable with buying an EV by making more chargers available. “ We need some charging now just to get people over that scary hump, and then it can be the Wild West again,” Murphy said.

Thompson said sizable federal funds will soon help those populations, including billions to expand the nation’s EV charging infrastructure network and for communities in underserved areas through the bipartisan infrastructure law that was passed last year. Additional support will come from the Inflation Reduction Act that was passed in August.

EV charging companies like Blink are willing to invest in urban areas where there’s not currently much demand since residents there will eventually need access to public charging. Jacobs called those neighborhoods “a homerun for Blink.”

For city officials that are unsure about whether to invest in charging infrastructure for a specific area, letting a private company come in and take ownership of the effort can help the city “get their feet wet” in that area, he said. Blink often starts small in those areas by running power for 10 chargers but only installing two and building more as demand increases.

Planning for future demand now is important so a city doesn’t have to dig up concrete and run conduit again in a couple of years, he added.

Thompson said there are also technology companies that allow people to rent out private EV chargers — it’s similar to the Airbnb model.

And city officials can help encourage multifamily housing building owners to install EV chargers in their parking lots as a way to attract more tenants, said Jacobs.

Electric vehicle sales are booming, but experts say continued growth in the sector depends on expanding global battery production — and several factors could complicate that effort.

Both in the United States and globally, sales of EVs and plug-in hybrids are growing at about a 50% year-over-year rate, according to Victor Irle , co-founder of EV Volumes. The company tracks monthly sales around the world by vehicle model.

In 2021 there were about 6.8 million EVs and plug-in hybrids sold globally — and in just the first half of this year, about 5.1 million were sold. “We're probably already over last year’s full-year results,” Irle said. “Y ou see that there is double-digit growth each and every month.”

Irle spoke Sept. 13 at the Novi Battery Show, outside of Detroit. The conference is hosted by Informa, which recently purchased Industry Dive.

Full-year 2022 global sales of EVs and PHEVs could reach 10.9 million, Irle said. Meanwhile, global sales of internal combustion engine vehicles are down 14%, year-to-date.

“By the end of the year, this number is probably going to be slightly higher because electric vehicles tend to sell better in the second half,” he said.

But experts say continued, rapid EV adoption will depend on a steady supply of batteries. Private industry and global governments are pouring billions into mining, materials processing, and component manufacturing and assembly.

In the U.S., battery plant manufacturing capacity is set to increase 428% by 2026, from 59 GWh in 2021 to 343.5 GWh, according to Anthony Burrell, head of energy storage at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

And automakers are investing $71.5 billion from 2017 through 2030 to electrify products, including new assembly plants and battery factories, he said. Those investments are alongside almost $7 billion in support by the federal government for battery materials processing and cell manufacturing, and another $7.5 billion to develop EV charging infrastructure.

“This curve, this predicted growth of battery development ... is remarkable,” Burrell said. He also cautioned that projections for battery production are often revised by analysts because growth rates for new technologies can be “unpredictable.”

“Like most of these technologies that are changing our world, they are significantly accelerated by public acceptance and cost reduction drivers in the market,” he said. “The problem we have keeping these slides up to date, is the announcements are coming out like daily.”

The global battery market is expected to grow at around a 34% compound annual growth rate, according to Robert Galyen, formerly the chief technology officer at CATL, the world’s largest battery manufacturer. He now does consulting work through his company Galyen Energy.

That battery growth rate represents somewhere between $100 billion and $300 billion worth of investment by 2030. “That’s a massive amount of money that's going to be spent on a new industry,” Galyen said.

But there are “growing pains” that can bedevil electrification efforts, he added, including governments developing incentives and regulations without fully understanding the sector.

“There are problems with understanding how complex this industry really is,” Galyen said. “It's all about chemistry. It's all about industrialization. And it's all about bringing value to the shareholders.”

There is large demand for critical minerals for batteries and a lack of processing capability, he said. Other issues include the need to time the development of charging EV infrastructure alongside battery production, and the potential for supply chain constraints to hold back new manufacturing facilities.

“Building materials are becoming scarce,” Galyen said. “I'm working with several companies right now on constructing new plants. Just to stand up structural steel is somewhere around the 50- to 54-week lead-time, depending upon how much purchasing power you've got.”

Similar issues exist for concrete and roofing materials, he said.

“Most of these factories are huge. The last time I sized a 15-GWh factory it was roughly 44 acres under one roof. That's a lot of roofing material,” Galyen said.

The California Air Resources Board adopted regulations on Aug. 25 by unanimous vote to mandate that all new sales of light-duty trucks and passenger cars be zero-emission vehicles by the 2035 model year.

Seventeen other states and the District of Columbia are able to adopt California’s standards in lieu of less restrictive federal requirements under the Clean Air Act. If they do adopt the new regulations, the impact of the decision could go well beyond the Golden State.

CARB’s action follows an executive order issued by Gov. Gavin Newsom, D, in 2020 directing the state to end sales of gasoline-powered vehicles, noting that transportation is responsible for more than half of all California’s carbon pollution and 80% of smog-forming pollution. According to CARB, the new regulations, known as Advanced Clean Cars II , will cut greenhouse gas emissions from passenger vehicles by more than 50% in 2040 .

“This is a historic moment for California, for our partner states and for the world as we set forth on this path towards a zero-emission future,” said CARB Chair Liane Randolph as she opened the hearing.

In the first half of 2022, EV sales in California exceeded 16% of the market . CARB set intermediate targets for auto manufacturers to meet, beginning at 35% of sales in model year 2026 and increasing yearly.

“It's really important to have not only the end target of 2035, but to have this road map of how we're going to get there that's very much achievable,” said David Reichmuth , senior engineer in the Clean Transportation program at the Union of Concerned Scientists.

Several automakers expressed their support of the regulations, with some caveats:

• General Motors stated it is “committed to emission reductions that are aligned with the California Air Resources Board’s targets,” in a letter to CARB.
• Ford wrote to CARB stating that the “sales curve is aggressive, and cooperative partnerships between vehicle manufacturers and Government will be required to achieve success.”
• Kia Worldwide Senior Manager for Government and Regulatory Affairs Laurie Holmes, speaking at the Aug. 25 hearing, said, “Automakers could have significant difficulties meeting the ZEV targets given elements outside of the control of industry.” She cited “significantly higher material costs, stressed supply chains and sourcing, inconsistent consumer incentives and inadequate charging infrastructure.”
• Tesla Senior Counsel for Policy and Business Development Joe Mendelson, speaking at the hearing, said, “The proposal is both achievable and paves the way for California to lead in electrifying the light-duty sector … Tesla encourages the Board to adopt today the ACC II regulations.”

Allie Gold Roberts , senior director of state policy for Ceres, a nonprofit organization focused on the business case for sustainability, said, “Companies are deeply committed to reducing emissions and their environmental footprint. That is because of the long-term impacts of climate change: the disruptions to their supply chain and the broader trend of sustainability.”

Gold Roberts anticipates that Oregon and Washington will be two of the first states to adopt the new California regulations. Massachusetts established a law this month to follow the California regulations once they are adopted. New York and Connecticut are expected to follow shortly, Gold Roberts said.

“The more states that adopt California standards, the stronger, the bigger impact they're going to have,” said Elaine O’Grady , policy and program director for the Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management. “It's going to also lay the foundation for stronger federal standards and also better standards throughout the world.”

O’Grady called out provisions in the new regulations that stiffen warranty and durability requirements and incentivize automakers to help low-income communities access zero-emission vehicles, for example, by providing reduced-price ZEVs for community mobility programs.

In addition to new federal purchase credits for electric vehicles included in the Inflation Reduction Act passed this month, California offers a $7,000 clean vehicle rebate , subject to income limitations . The state also provides incentives for lower-income consumers living in and near disadvantaged communities to trade in their gas-powered cars for hybrid or zero-emission vehicles.

The ACC II regulation also requires manufacturers to reduce tailpipe emissions from gasoline-powered vehicles during aggressive driving and cold starts. California is also preparing new zero-emission regulations for medium and heavy-duty trucks , which are expected to take effect in 2040. CARB is expected to take up the proposed regulation in October .

California regulators last week approved first-of-their-kind protocols on submetering technology, which would essentially allow EV owners to measure their vehicles’ energy consumption separately from their main utility meter .

Thanks to the decision, owners of EVs, as well as of electric buses and trucks, will be able to avoid installing an additional meter to measure the electricity that is consumed by their vehicle, removing a key barrier to EV adoption across the state.

The CPUC’s decision is the culmination of a decade of efforts to develop submetering capabilities and standardize communication protocols, President Alice Reynolds said. “We really are hoping to build on efforts to accelerate and facilitate greater customer control over how and when they charge their vehicle and enable customers to better manage their demand and to benefit from electric vehicle-specific rates,” she said .

The transportation sector represents nearly 40% of California’s greenhouse gas emissions, and electrifying vehicles is a critical component of the state’s decarbonization efforts. In 2020, Gov. Gavin Newsom, D, passed an executive order aiming to have all new passenger vehicle sales in the state be zero-emission by 2035 . Currently, over 16% of passenger cars sold in California are electric, and the state represents nearly half of EV sales across the country.

Submetering basically allows EV customers to avoid having to install a separate meter to measure the electricity use of their car, CPUC Commissioner Clifford Rechtschaffen said at an agency voting meeting Aug. 4. This is significant because in California, EVs are subject to special rate structures, which make it less costly to charge them during off-peak hours.

“Right now, you can charge your car for one-half to one-third the cost of filling up the gas tank, and that’s actually even before the run up of gas prices over the last several months,” Rechtschaffen said. “But, the EV rates often don’t work for an entire home or business — so most EV drivers today aren’t choosing those EV-specific rates.”

EV-specific rates can drastically reduce the cost of owning an electric car, but many customers are reluctant to purchase an additional utility-grade meter, presenting a barrier to EV adoption across the state, according to the CPUC.

“This technology is a way around that,” Rechtschaffen said.

This is one of the decisions issued by the CPUC that may seem technical and challenging but promises far-reaching implications, Rechtschaffen said, adding that “This makes us the first state in the country to allow EV owners to measure the electricity use of their car independently from their main utility meter.”

In addition, the decision approved by California regulators lays out communication protocols for EV chargers, which Rechtschaffen said will help enable vehicle-grid integration. Vehicle-grid integration refers to “a whole suite of actions that shape when and how people charge their cars — what time, what level, how much power is sent back, and the goal is to both minimize the impacts on the grid and maximize consumer benefits, reduce the cost for them or allow them to get paid for sending power back to the grid,” he said.

Vehicle-grid integration will become especially important as California adds more EVs to its roads, creating the potential to overburden the grid. Earlier this year, Pacific Gas & Electric and General Motors announced a pilot to test bidirectional charging — essentially, allowing customers to export power from their vehicles — which could help EVs become an on-demand home power source.

Avangrid subsidiary United Illuminating expects to have 3,000 electric vehicles in its Connecticut territory by 2024 and has been working with Bidgely to utilize them as a grid resource and avoid driving higher peak demand when they are charging, Avangrid officials said.

Avangrid says it is developing a similar program in New York and is still in the process of selecting a long-term vendor in both states. Its work with Bidgely is being done under a one-year partnership announced in May.

The biggest challenge in serving EV load will be integrating the new demand in ways that do not drive higher peak demand, Charles Spence, Avangrid manager of customer programs and products, said in a July discussion of its load management efforts with Bidgely.

Connecticut finished 2021 with about 21,000 EVs registered in the state, but its long-term transportation strategy calls for 500,000 by 2030 . As the number of plug-in vehicles in its service territories grows, Avangrid sees three key barriers to harnessing them as a grid resource, Spence said.

“The biggest challenge is obviously integrating that load,” Spence said. “We're seeing just an unbelievable number of vehicles, [and] those vehicles all can consume 60 kWh if they are expended fully and get recharged in a day. That's generally what the whole house uses.”

That load must be integrated on a volume basis as well as timing, he said, to avoid spiking demand when residential customers return home in the evening and plug in their vehicles. Avangrid’s demand response managed charging program in Connecticut helps with that, but other challenges include accommodating varied customer technology preferences when it comes to vehicles and chargers, and ensuring investments and incentives are properly sized.

“Making sure that we're not paying people too much, but on the other hand, [they] aren't being paid so little that they're not interested in participating,” Spence said.

Avangrid, like the rest of the utility sector, is still developing best practices when it comes to utilizing EVs as demand response assets, Spence said. Needs can vary from territory to territory, and between more and less constrained circuits, he said.

In the first year of its Connecticut program, Avangrid could call up to 15 demand response events per month where it controls customer EV chargers to reduce grid stress. Customers are able to opt out of events.

“I doubt we'll ever really call that many ... that's pretty heavy-handed,” Spence said. But the flexibility to call more events allows for the utility to test whether customer participation drops off over time. The utility is also able to use its extensive advanced metering infrastructure network in Connecticut to identify customers who have EVs but are not yet participating in a demand response program, or to better engage with enrolled customers who are not participating.

Avangrid is still building out its program and doesn’t yet have a clear indication of how large a demand response resource EVs can be, said Spence.

“We’ll have a better idea of this total resource after the first program year where we’ve collected data on participation and gathered learnings,” Spence said in an email. “At that point, we’ll able to better estimate things like: average battery size of participating EVs, average participation per participant in terms of curtailable load, and the reliability of the resource overall.”

“The resource is absolutely growing and we expect this to be a substantial flexible resource over time,” Spence said.

Avangrid is working to develop a similar program in New York and in June filed a revised managed charging proposal with state regulators for its New York State Electric & Gas and Rochester Gas and Electric subsidiaries.

Though the New York programs will be larger than Avangrid’s Connecticut efforts, “this will end up being a very similar program, both from the perspective of what regulators have assigned to the utilities in the state, but also in the type of program we implement,” Spence said.

Nearly 20 states and jurisdictions have signed on to an action plan striving for 100% electric medium and heavy-duty vehicle sales by 2050.

The plan, released July 27, includes policy recommendations for local lawmakers to consider when crafting legislation aimed at boosting adoption of electric trucks and buses. A coalition of 17 states plus Washington, D.C., and the Canadian province of Quebec helped develop the plan, facilitated by the Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management.

Recommendations include adding more electric charging infrastructure, requiring fleets to submit data about their use of electric vehicles and that states subsidize a portion of fleets’ cost differential when buying an electric versus traditional truck.

Nearly half of the U.S. population is represented under the plan, as well as 36% of the country's medium and heavy-duty vehicles. Advocates hope it will give states needed tools to encourage, and if needed enforce, electric truck adoption.

Facilitated by the Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management, or NESCAUM, the plan is the result of a task force dating back to 2013; the coalition of now 17 states, Washington, D.C. and Quebec has been working since 2020 specifically to develop the action plan , a draft of which was released for public comment this spring.

Participating jurisdictions have committed to strive for at least 30% electric medium and heavy-duty vehicle sales by 2030, and 100% by 2050.

Policy recommendations in the "Multi-State Medium- and Heavy-Duty Zero-Emission Vehicle Action Plan" are often based on best practices from participating states. It particularly highlights California's Advanced Clean Trucks regulation, pushing states to establish zero-emission sales requirements for trucks, as well as a one-time fleet reporting requirement.

Climate advocates have applauded the plan and its creation of a "consistent regulatory framework" to make widespread fleet electrification a reality, said Ryan Gallentine, policy director at Advanced Energy Economy, a trade association that advocates for electrified transport in the U.S.

"We’d recommend states take as much of the wisdom from the Action Plan as they can and create a custom list of actions to electrify their MHD fleets and improve air quality," Gallentine said in an email.

Several participating states have pushed ahead with their own electrification plans, many of which are aligned with or even more aggressive than the NESCAUM action plan. Washington and Oregon , for example, have already adopted California’s Advanced Clean Trucks rule, and last year New York set a goal for all new medium and heavy-duty truck sales to be electric by 2045.

The plan also presents action items for utilities and utility regulators to coordinate with fleets around establishing charging infrastructure that is tailored to truck charging needs. A lack of charging infrastructure has been a stumbling block for companies looking to electrify their fleets.

A key priority throughout the plan is its focus on creating an equitable electrification transition for underserved communities and workers who have been most affected by greenhouse gas emissions.

The plan calls for states to deliver "early benefits to communities historically exposed to higher levels of air pollution, including reserving a percentage of funding for deployments that will benefit state-defined overburdened communities." It also encourages specific support for small fleets, minority-owned fleets, and independent owner-operators.

States have continued to join the coalition since work on the plan began in 2020, with Nevada signing on in March. Moving forward, Gallentine urged more states to consider joining and taking up the cause, putting tangible work behind the plan.

"Taken together, the action plan represents probably the most comprehensive set of policy recommendations for [medium and heavy-duty] electrification as has ever been assembled, but it’s only as good as the concrete actions that are put in place as a result," Gallentine said.